THE only previous time that Brazil hosted the WorldCup, in 1950, it famously lost the final 2-1 toUruguay, after shipping two goals in 13 minutes late in the second half. So deflated wereBrazilians that Nelson Rodrigues, a playwright and journalist, described the occasion as a“national catastrophe…our Hiroshima”.
If that is the benchmark, then the 7-1 semi-final thrashing on July 8th at the hands of Germanyin Belo Horizonte's Mineir?o stadium was Brazil's Armageddon. It was not just the scale ofdefeat—the worst since 1920. It was also the manner in which Germany's fast and technicallysuperior players cut through the home defence, as easily as a machete through cassava. Torub salt in a gaping wound, it is Argentina—Brazil's arch-rivals—who will face Germany in thefinal on July 13th.
This humiliation has left Brazilians shell-shocked. No other country in the world has a closeridentification with football, as Rodrigues's hyperbole highlights. That may partly be becauseBrazil has no real Hiroshimas to fear: apart from brief engagement on the Allied side in Italy in1944-45, it has not fought a war since the 1860s (against Paraguay). Through good fortuneand tolerance, it faces neither military threats, nor terrorism, nor ethnic or religious tensions.
But this identification with football is also because the sport has provided a national narrativeand a social glue. In a country that for long periods has failed to live up to its potential,prowess at the game provided “a confidence in ourselves that no other institution has givenBrazil to the same extent”, as Roberto DaMatta, an anthropologist, wrote in the 1980s. Brazilhas won five World Cups but no Brazilian has won a Nobel prize.
In winning the right to host this year's World Cup (and the Olympics in Rio de Janeiro in 2016)Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil's then president, wanted to highlight that the country now hasother reasons for confidence beyond football. The tournament would showcase the planet'sseventh-largest economy, a vibrant democracy and remarkable social progress that hasseen poverty and income inequality fall steadily in this century.
But the tournament has taken place just as Brazilians are feeling less confident about theircountry's course. The economy has slowed to a crawl; inflation is at 6.5%, despite asuccession of interest-rate rises. The 11 billion of publicly financed spending on stadiums helpedto trigger huge protests last year over poor public services, corruption and the misplacedpriorities of politicians. The last-minute rush to complete the stadiums, and the tragic collapseof a newly-built flyover in Belo Horizonte this month, have highlighted Brazil's difficulties withinfrastructure projects.
Contrary to some forecasts, the event itself has gone smoothly, without transportbreakdowns or significant protests. Predictably, most fans have had a great time. Polls showedthat Brazilians were warming to the idea of hosting the tournament. Despite being booed atthe opening ceremony, Dilma Rousseff, Lula's successor and protégée, had felt emboldened toannounce that she would attend the final.
Brazil's shattering defeat has robbed Ms Rousseff of any hope she might have nurtured thatthe World Cup would provide her with a boost in an election in October at which she will seek asecond term. But in itself it will not help the opposition either. Things are not as simple asthat. Brazilians were always going to have other matters on their mind when they vote in threemonths' time. The incumbent president won in 1998 when Brazil lost badly in the World Cupfinal, after all; and his chosen successor lost in 2002 when Brazil won.
At a deeper level, however, the humiliation of the Mineir?o is likely to reinforce the country'snegative mood. And that is potentially dangerous for Ms Rousseff. Though polls still make herthe favourite, the campaign will only now start in earnest. Her approval rating hovers barelyabove 40%, and polls consistently show between 60% and 70% of Brazilians wanting change.With her centre-left Workers' Party having been in power for 12 years, can she offer it? Herappeal is in essence to past achievements—to a huge rise in employment and real wages, bothof which are only just starting to move into reverse.
Similarly, the Mineir?o disaster showed that Brazilian football is no longer a source of nationalconfidence. It too needs changes that go far beyond building shiny new stadiums. Its officialsare corrupt and its domestic league poorly run. Living on past glory, it is inward-looking andtactically outdated. Brazilians may end up concluding that they need new management and newideas, both on and off the pitch.